Bass Angling Conservation regularly attends the fisheries stakeholder meetings (Regional Fisheries Group) for the South to South East region (area VIId).

Here is what we said at the last meeting – NB we’ve tidied it up to make it a bit clearer. If you’d like to listen to the meeting, you can do that on a Government website here:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/regional-fisheries-groups-south-7d

Mackerel

Just looking at that dismal mackerel quota take-up by under 10 metre boats reminded me I’ve been receiving comments from recreational fishers having increasing difficulty catching mackerel on the south coast and it makes me wonder whether any catch per unit of effort goes into the assessments?

Sole

I just pulled up the sole assessment and the stock is in a real mess. You can argue about the level of recruitment, but there’s a pattern of low recruitment in recent years. The top confidence interval for the stock is almost at Bpa (the level below which rebuilding is needed), so the stock is likely to be below Bpa. The answer to that is to fish at a lower level.  I’ve lost confidence in the Fmsy numbers (i.e. recommended fishing pressure level) as I’ve learned how they’ve been calculated – I’m inclined to take them with a pinch of salt. The objective should be to try to grow the stock year on year. We can’t forecast very far ahead with any degree of accuracy because of the massive uncertainty. So why don’t we do something very pragmatic and simple – say we’ll try to grow the stock each year. Maybe that will also take us away from having these huge variations in fishing opportunities as well. What we’ve got doesn’t really make any sense – it doesn’t work.

Uncertainty in ICES Science Advice

I’m laughing to myself as I look at the catch scenarios table and I see something ridiculous. The spawning stock biomass estimates for 2028 are to the nearest tonne and that is just nonsense.  There’s no real discussion in any of this ICES advice about the level of uncertainty. We can we can pick holes in recruitment, we can pick holes in all sorts of different aspects of it, but these are intended to be best estimates, nothing more than best estimates.  And yet the way that it’s presented is as if it precise – fishing pressure should be no more than 163 tons. To talk about 163 tons in the context of all of the uncertainty in the model and data – and not to say “this is really uncertain”. Managers need to be aware this is really uncertain. If you don’t recognize this uncertainty and you treat everything as if they are exact values, you get into this nonsense of fishing opportunities jumping up or down every year. It doesn’t work for fishers and it probably doesn’t work for the stock either. You need something much more progressive and incremental when you’re trying to recover a stock.